TEXTILES.ORG
According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), tariffs and uncertainty surrounding trade policy due to recent U.S. policy shifts will lead to the decline in global trade volume by 0.2 percent in 2025, contrary to growth predictions in January 2025. Global trade is heavily influenced by two major economies, the U.S. and China, which are in the center of a tariff “war.”
In the latest report from the WTO, China in 2024 was the world’s largest merchandise exporter valued at $3.58 trillion, and the largest importer was the U.S., valued at $3.36 trillion. Interestingly, in the case of services, the global export trend is reversed with the U.S. being the largest exporter in 2024 valued at $1.08 trillion, while as a block, the European Union exceeded the U.S. with services exports at $1.64 trillion. Given the data, it is clear why the trade rift is so focused on the U.S. and China.
The textiles goods trade
The geopolitical situation, the economy, and the uncertainty surrounding trade can influence the GDP of nations worldwide, as well as overall trade. Furthermore, during this second Trump presidency, the trade landscape will be changing. Even before April 2nd, the effect of uncertain policies is seen in the U.S. trade data. According to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the goods and services deficit in March 2025 increased by $17.3 billion, making the total deficit $140.5 billion, up from the February figure of $123.2 billion.
Apparel and clothing accessories are one among the top three items in the trade category of manufactured articles, emphasizing its contribution to U.S. global trade. As of March 2025 (year-to-date), U.S. imports and exports reveal how the U.S. has deficits in the trade of textiles, apparel and related products. Imports in these commodities (January-March 2025) amount to about $30 billion, where about $22 billion worth of imports were made in apparel. Other major imports are furniture, footwear, rubber and paper products.
The current U.S. situation
Currently, the U.S. has imposed a 10 percent tariff on all goods from all countries, except China which has an additional 20 percent, which was imposed in February 2025 as a countermeasure to illegal Fentanyl trafficking. The trade deficit with China in terms of merchandise has received public attention, which has accompanied job losses in manufacturing in the U.S. and other developed economies.
In my opinion, it’s a positive move to support the revival of manufacturing, as our economy is currently heavily dependent on information technology, financial and communication services. What sectors within the manufacturing industry need a bigger push and better support? Manufacturing technologies that are essential for national defense, homeland security, human and animal health, environmental protection, information technology, artificial intelligence, cost-effective sustainable materials, and advanced biomaterials are critical and need a boost.
A textile manufacturing revival?
Advanced and industrial textiles that cater to national defense and security will have support from the public and their respective governments. Enhancing the manufacturing of low-end and/or commodity textiles may not be economically competitive, given the cost of production, margins, and the demand. Apart from textiles that cater to hygiene and health care, spending on semi-durable textiles is discretionary, and hence is dependent on factors such as the economy and employment.
Recently, the U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has expressed in interviews with the media that the U.S. is not interested in pushing for boosting the manufacture of commodity textiles. Furniture, sneakers and other shoes, and apparel are not on the priority list for revival due to economics. China is the dominant player in textiles and apparel export followed by other low-cost manufacturing countries like Bangladesh, Cambodia and Vietnam.
The tariff situation has made it clear that the U.S. wants to shift the dominance of export trade away from China. Opportunities for leading manufacturing countries like India are on the horizon. It will depend on a number of factors, such as the level of tariffs, bilateral trade agreements and conditions in agreements, which decide on the share of imports into the U.S., for example. India can be an alternative to China given its textile manufacturing base, availability of fiber, availability of labor, a skilled workforce, and government support programs.
Economics vs. essentiality
The shortages of life-saving personal protective equipment (PPE) during COVID-19 has rightly exposed the vulnerability of advanced economies for not focusing on the manufacture of innovative medical and advanced textiles. It was quite revealing that there was a short supply of even non-medical grade, three-ply face masks. When it comes to saving lives, functionality and quality are key factors and not the cost. Indeed, there should be a balance between functionality and cost.
A recent study from our laboratory has shown that domestically manufactured masks under stringent quality standards both for the process and product, perform better in their filtration efficiency (See: Filtration performance of face masks and facepiece respirators used during COVID-19 pandemic, TAPPI Journal, February 2025, https://imisrise.tappi.org/TAPPI/Products/25/FEB/25FEB61.aspx).
Products like Filtering Facepiece Respirators (FFRs), anti-ballistic materials, radiation and electromagnetic ray shielding materials are essential and lifesaving. The need and the cost associated with lifesaving products justify the growth in the manufacturing of these essential textile items.
Procurement requirements and regulations serve to protect the industries that manufacture these products. Furthermore, national defense budgets allocate funding for the procurement and stockpiling of advanced textiles. Developed economies not only budget for mass procurement of these items, but funding is also available for basic, applied and multidisciplinary research related to these products.
In this regard, there are two major initiatives in the U.S., including the North Carolina Textile Innovation and Sustainability Engine with an expected support of $160 million for 10 years. From the functional textiles’ perspective, the U.S. Dept. of Defense funded the Advanced Functional Fabrics of America (AFFOA) Consortium, which serves to highlight the level of support for functional fibers and textiles.
The economics of onshoring commodity textiles
In consumer-oriented economies like those in the West, industry is interested in delivering products at a cheap rate which are affordable to enlarge market size. Even in a reasonable tariff regime of 10 percent, it may not be advantageous to increase domestic manufacturing. (Who will absorb the tariff burden is a separate debate!) The current ongoing issue with Walmart advising the increase in retail price due to tariffs—to be absorbed by consumers—is an example of the complexities involving customs taxes, i.e. tariffs.
Labor cost is a major barrier, and regulatory issues also influence the onshoring of textile manufacturing. Although raw materials occupy about 70 percent of the total cost of a product, labor cost and other factors influence the manufacturing of textiles. This is evident in cotton textile manufacturing.
The U.S. is a leading producer and exporter of cotton, with 85 percent of it exported, as domestic consumption has shrunk. This indicates that even with the abundance of raw materials within the boundaries, manufacturing of undergarments and T-shirts is not economically viable compared to industrial and automotive textiles.
Contrary to this picture, nonwovens, functional textiles and wearables are sectors that are growing in the U.S.. Kimberly-Clark is investing $80 million in advanced manufacturing in Warren, Ohio, catering to baby care, adult and feminine care products. Such investments in manufacturing create new jobs and attract local and state economic development funds. Personal hygiene products are single-use and hence have more demand than durable and semi-durable goods. Consumer care, hygiene and medical textiles have more demand than commodity textiles, and hence domestic manufacturing is needed in these sectors, so it makes economic sense.
As mentioned above, labor cost is the major determining factor in textile manufacturing. The economics of labor in India and the U.S. show a striking contrast, supporting the argument that T-shirt manufacturing is not economical in developed economies. The cost differential is twenty times between the U.S. and India. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the hourly rate in a textile products manufacturing mill is $24.26, while in India, a textile spinning mill pays between $0.7 to $1.1 per hour. It’ hard to compete against countries like China, India and Bangladesh in a variety of commodity products.
Given the new tariffs, which is becoming “the new normal,” low-cost countries with a raw material base and strong government support, such as India, have potential in competition with other lower wage countries, such as Bangladesh, which depends on imports like cotton from the U.S.
Advantages of advanced textiles manufacturing
The functionality aspects of advanced textiles like high projectile resistance, hydrophilicity, hydrophobicity, super absorbency, or chem-bio protection, are all well researched and documented. The cost savings advantage, which encouraged advanced economies like those in the European Union and the U.S. to move away from commodity textiles manufacturing, will not be the deciding factor in the case of value-added textiles. Ongoing global conflicts and uncertain trade and supply chain issues warrant an effort for countries to protect and grow their advanced textiles industry.
The world is seeing a realignment in terms of geopolitics, the economy and trade. Given the political situation in the U.S. supporting domestic manufacturing, it would be hard to go back to a zero tariff regime. Some countries may come out to be winners. In the case of textiles, Chinese dominance may erode as other leading countries may gain relative tariff advantages, and a competitive and political edge. In my view, in the commodity textiles space, India’s exports will exponentially increase.
May 17–22, 2025, an Indian trade delegation, led by India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, visited the U.S. to finalize an India–U.S. trade deal. India might be using its latest trade deal as a template to achieve zero to low tariffs for its textiles and apparel exports. However, it might be a tall order to achieve zero. Tariffs for India might be lower for its textile and apparel exports as the Trump administration will be negotiating for lower custom duties for U.S. agricultural products, such as cotton, in India. A bilateral relationship with India will be a positive result for the U.S. advanced textiles sectors as India needs super absorbents, composites, anti-ballistics, and high-performance fibers.
The U.S. will be realigning itself to maintain its dominance globally by partnering with countries like India and Thailand for its dominant presence in the South Pacific. Textile trade provides unique opportunity for strengthening the political and economic relationship with South Pacific and South Asian countries. In brief, a new trade order will be beneficial for the U.S.’ advanced textiles sector.
Dr. Seshadri Ramkumar is a professor in the Department of Environmental Toxicology and The Institute of Environmental and Human Health, Texas Tech University, and a regular contributor to Textile Technology Source.